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The precision cosmological model describing the origin and expansion history of the universe, with observed structure seeded at the inflationary cosmic horizon, demands completion in the ultraviolet and in the infrared. The dynamics of the cosmic horizon also suggests an associated entropy, again requiring a microphysical theory. Recent years have seen enormous progress in understanding the structure of de Sitter space and inflation in string theory, and of cosmological observables captured by quantum field theory and solvable deformations thereof. The resulting models admit ongoing observational tests through measurements of the cosmic microwave background and large-scale structure, as well as through analyses of theoretical consistency by means of thought experiments. This paper, prepared for the TF01 and TF09 conveners of the Snowmass 2021 process, provides a synopsis of this important area, focusing on ongoing developments and opportunities. Note: Contribution to Snowmass 2021 

Abstract CMB-S4—the next-generation ground-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiment—is set to significantly advance the sensitivity of CMB measurements and enhance our understanding of the origin and evolution of the universe. Among the science cases pursued with CMB-S4, the quest for detecting primordial gravitational waves is a central driver of the experimental design. This work details the development of a forecasting framework that includes a power-spectrum-based semianalytic projection tool, targeted explicitly toward optimizing constraints on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, r , in the presence of Galactic foregrounds and gravitational lensing of the CMB. This framework is unique in its direct use of information from the achieved performance of current Stage 2–3 CMB experiments to robustly forecast the science reach of upcoming CMB-polarization endeavors. The methodology allows for rapid iteration over experimental configurations and offers a flexible way to optimize the design of future experiments, given a desired scientific goal. To form a closed-loop process, we couple this semianalytic tool with map-based validation studies, which allow for the injection of additional complexity and verification of our forecasts with several independent analysis methods. We document multiple rounds of forecasts for CMB-S4 using this process and the resulting establishment of the current reference design of the primordial gravitational-wave component of the Stage-4 experiment, optimized to achieve our science goals of detecting primordial gravitational waves for r > 0.003 at greater than 5 σ , or in the absence of a detection, of reaching an upper limit of r < 0.001 at 95% CL.